Nuclear Reactor Scorecard 

Best prospects for actually building one

Like the barker at a baseball game, you cannot tell the players without a program or a score card.  The Department of Energy (DOE) and the American Nuclear Society (ANS) periodically publish updates on the status of new nuclear builds in the U.S. 

At DOE a quarterly report mines information from agency files and the licensing status reports of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The ANS data is published for members in ‘Renaissance Watch” in “Nuclear News.”

The question for the job seeker is which of the nearly 20 new nuclear reactor projects has the best prospects for actually moving forward to construction?  No one wants to invest a few years of a career in a nuclear energy project that bites the dust because of political opposition or inability to get financing.  Project readiness also means having a reactor design that is on time for the U.S. market.

The list of places to look can be boiled down to choices in three broad categories. They are, in baseball terms (1) ducks on the pond, (2) close but no cigar, and (3) sent down to the minors.

There are 18 combined construction and operating license applications (COL) pending at the NRC.  However, you can take a few off the table because they changed their minds about the reactor they want to use, or for other prudent reasons. 

You can push another group of these applications into the future because of the current recession, and with it a downturn in electricity demand.  The projects you want to pay attention to are signing engineering procurement contracts and are on the DOE short list for federal loan guarantees. 

Ducks on the pond

In baseball the term "ducks on the pond" means you have runners at 1st and 3rd and less than two outs. There are good odds to score a run this inning. 

The short list of near-term prospects for new nuclear builds, which are projects where you won’t lose a $20 bill betting they’ll break ground by 2012-2014, are listed here.  All four are on the DOE short list for loan guarantees and they have signed EPC contracts to build the plants once licenses are granted by the NRC.

• Calvert Cliffs – Constellation plans to build a 1,650 MW Areva EPR in  Maryland. Bechtel is the EPC lead.
• Vogtle – Southern plans to build two 1,150 Westinghouse AP1000s in South Carolina. Shaw is the EPC lead.
• V.C., Summer – SCE&G will build two 1,150 Westinghouse AP1000s in Georgia. Shaw is the EPC lead.
• South Texas Project – NRG will build two GE-Hitachi 1,350 MW ABWRs in Texas. Toshiba is the EPC lead.

Note that the South Texas Project is having a rough patch right now getting CPS Energy of San Antonio to sign up as a 20% investor in the project.  The firm says it can find other investors if CPS walks.

Close but no cigar

These are projects which are further out in their timelines.  They don’t have near-term prospects for loan guarantees nor EPC contracts in place, but they are viable and will likely be built.  The timeframe for these nuclear reactors breaking ground is the middle of the next decade.

• Comanche Peak – Luminant will build two Mitstubishi 1,750 MW APWRs in Texas.  It is a runner up for loan guarantees.
• North Anna – Dominion hasn’t made up its mind yet on a reactor, but has good prospects for building a third unit at its Virginia site.
• Fermi – Detroit Edison is faced with an auto industry that has tanked, but eventually manufacturing will come back. A third reactor will be build in Michigan because the regulatory environment favors having a large enough rate base to attract investors.
• Harris, NC; Progress is pushing the project schedule back to start-up in 2020.  The utility is working on energy efficiency and wind/solar projects.
• Bellefonte – TVA could build a new AP1000 at a site in Alabama rather than trying to restart two mothballed units from the 1980s that were never completed.  A decision is due in April 2010.
• Bell Bend, PA: PPL has an NRC schedule for completing the review of COL for an Areva EPR  in 2013. 

Sent down to the minors

These are projects where the utility thinks that up-rates to existing reactors makes more sense in the near-term.  In other instances, the utility couldn’t come to terms with a reactor vendor on costs.  In a few cases, the utility has stepped back to focus on other projects.

• Grand Gulf, MS, & River Bend, LA; – Entergy could not comes to terms with GE-Hitachi on the price of the 1,530 MW ESBWR which at the time was delayed in making progress with design certification at the NRC.  It is pursuing uprates for these reactors.
• Victoria TX; Exelon also stepped back from the ESBWR when it got a low rating in terms of time to market from DOE in the race for loan guarantees.  The utility it keeping its options open by applying for an Early Site Permit with the NRC. Also, it is planning uprates to existing reactors.
• Turkey Point, FL; Florida Power & Light got bad news this month from the state’s public utility commission on rate increases. It’s stopped work on the twin AP1000 reactor project.
• Levy County, FL; Like the Turkey point project, the Florida PUC is not granting rate increases to Progress when unemployment in the sunshine state is headed north of 20%. Like FPL it has plans for twin AP1000s.
• William States Lee, SC; Duke Energy has suspended the licensing process. Last Fall it reportedly stopped responding to requests for information from NRC for the project.
• Nine Mile, NY; Constellation has asked the NRC to stop work on the COL so it can focus its resources on Calvert Cliffs
• Callaway, MO; Ameren has stopped all work on an Areva EPR because it could not convince the state legislature to grant it the authority to pay for the reactor with rate increases while it was being built.

What about the rest?

Several speculative projects are on the NRC’s list of nuclear reactor sites. The agency has received letters of intent to submit COLs.  However, these projects are not funded nor managed by commercial utilities.  There are no firm estimates on when or how these projects will move forward to a mature form.

& & &

This schedule, and the ratings, aren't cast in stone.  Utilities change their minds based on economic conditions, the actions of state and federal regulatory agencies, and the interest of investors. 

Keep in mind that a few years experience at one site can position you for work at new reactor projects later in your career.  Your first job is unlikley to be your last.  Good luck and good job hunting.

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